Is Trump electable? Can Carson nab the GOP presidential nomination? Does Rand Paul have a chance? Is Chris Christie finished — before a voter has voted?
It’s still pre-primary season, and it is worth remembering that — even as we judge candidates on various capacities, including their ability to “handle the media” — one arm of the media possesses potentially the most influence along with too little scrutiny: the pollsters.
They are allegedly the most scientific and objective folks in the industry, with closest ties to actual intellectual disciplines, statistics and political science.
But they are also, willy nilly, political players, not just observers.
Though tasked to provide data on public opinion about matters of importance, they also influence public opinion in several crucial ways:
- By how they phrase poll questions. This is an art, and can be extremely propagandistic. Pollsters can often “get” the information they want — if they want something in particular, perhaps for partisan reasons — by wording those questions carefully.
- By ordering questions in particular ways. The first question sets up a context. The second is then interpreted by those polled in that context. Pollsters can nudge people to reverse their usual opinions by providing an alien context.
- By presenting the results, skewed or not. People are influenced by others. Voting for candidates, especially, partly depends on second-guessing other voters. Few people wish to vote for someone who “cannot win.” Therefore, a published poll result that shows popularity can increase popularity, in a sort of multiplier effect.
Polls and poll results can provide useful information. Hey, I’ve used professional pollsters. But we all have to be cautious . . . remembering that voting one’s conscience is a high-percentage play.
This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.
3 replies on “Pollsters Are Political Players, Too”
Thank you for delineating how polls work. Since I have only been polled once in all my voting years, I did not really know. I will say that most thinking people do not pay attention to polls. Personally not influenced, especially with a bully like Trump leading in most. I do know you are right that people abandon candidates they don’t perceive can win. Elections… a dirty business all around
My daughter and I were polled in person and when I didn’t give her the answer, on gun control, that she wanted she repeated the question in a tone of voice that let me know it was the wrong answer and after a few of those, she argued with me about my answer. My daughter had the same experience.
And of course, on the phone they do what you said.
Research the 18 pollsters for each of the demopublican parties and you will see they are advisors to specific campaigns. There are none for the alternate parties. Wonder why?